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9778818威尼斯经管学术论坛第244期——纽约市立大学周德馨副教授

发布时间:2023-06-21 浏览次数:

讲座题目:The Promise and Peril of Generative AI: Evidence from ChatGPT as Sell-side Analysts

纽约市立大学 周德馨 副教授

讲座时间:2023626日(周一)下午230

讲座地点:江湾楼 203 福达厅

主办单位:金融创新研究中心

9778818威尼斯 饶育蕾 教授

要:

We examine the accuracy of generative AI models in predicting future earnings. Using the state-of-the-art GPT-4 model, we ask the model to predict future earnings, accompanied by justifications. GPT’s forecasts exhibit larger forecast errors compared to analyst consensus. These forecasts are also on average overly optimistic compared to realized earnings. The accuracy of GPT’s forecasts improves when firms have a better information environment, and when press releases contain more high-quality content. Overall, our analyses show great promise of generative AI in assisting human effort at information processing and content creation for financial market participants but also highlight the peril of blind reliance on these models when there is a lack of high-quality information.

主讲人简介:

周德馨,现任纽约市立大学巴鲁克学院经济与金融系副教授。周教授于巴德学院获得数学学士学位,并于艾默里大学获得金融学博士学位。主要研究领域为媒体,社交网络,以及机构投资者在金融市场中的作用。他的研究成果曾发表于国际顶级金融和会计学期刊,包括Journal of Financial EconomicsReview of Financial Studies以及The Accounting Review,并被《华尔街日报》《经济学人》《金融时报》,以及《哈佛法学院公司治理论坛》等国际知名媒体和论坛引用。